{"id":3050,"date":"2026-09-05T13:41:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T05:41:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talkstoryone.com\/?p=3050"},"modified":"2026-09-05T13:50:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T05:50:49","slug":"2026%e8%b6%85%e5%bc%b7%e8%81%96%e5%ac%b0%e6%ad%a3%e5%9c%a8%e6%88%90%e5%bd%a2%ef%bc%9a69%e6%a9%9f%e7%8e%87%e6%8c%91%e6%88%b01950%e5%b9%b4%e4%bb%a5%e4%be%86%e6%9c%80%e5%bc%b7%e7%b4%80%e9%8c%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/talkstoryone.com\/en\/2026%e8%b6%85%e5%bc%b7%e8%81%96%e5%ac%b0%e6%ad%a3%e5%9c%a8%e6%88%90%e5%bd%a2%ef%bc%9a69%e6%a9%9f%e7%8e%87%e6%8c%91%e6%88%b01950%e5%b9%b4%e4%bb%a5%e4%be%86%e6%9c%80%e5%bc%b7%e7%b4%80%e9%8c%84\/","title":{"rendered":"2026\u8d85\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\u6b63\u5728\u6210\u5f62\uff1a69%\u6a5f\u7387\u6311\u62301950\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5f37\u7d00\u9304"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u6bcf\u9694\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u547c\u5438\u7bc0\u594f\u6703\u88ab\u6253\u4e82\u3002\u4fe1\u98a8\u6e1b\u5f31,\u539f\u672c\u5806\u7a4d\u5728\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u6696\u6c34\u958b\u59cb\u5411\u6771\u56de\u6d41,\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u51b7\u6c34\u6e67\u5347\u88ab\u58d3\u5236,\u6574\u7247\u8d64\u9053\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u6eab\u8ddf\u8457\u5347\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u300c\u53cd\u5e38\u5347\u6eab\u300d\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">\u8056\u5b30\u73fe\u8c61<\/mark>\uff08El Ni\u00f1o\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u6587\u539f\u610f\u70ba\u300c\u5c0f\u7537\u5b69\u300d\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u662f\u5357\u7f8e\u6f01\u6c11\u7528\u4f86\u7a31\u547c\u8036\u8a95\u7bc0\u524d\u5f8c\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u7570\u5e38\u6696\u6d41\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA\u5224\u5b9a\u8056\u5b30\u6642\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u770b\u6d77\u6c34\u6eab\u5ea6\u3002Ni\u00f1o-3.4\u5340\u6d77\u8868\u6eab\u5ea6\u9700\u81f3\u5c11\u6bd4\u5e73\u5747\u9ad8\u51fa0.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u4e14\u9019\u7a2e\u7570\u5e38\u5df2\u6301\u7e8c\u6216\u9810\u671f\u6301\u7e8c5\u500b\u9023\u7e8c\u3001\u91cd\u758a\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u6642\u6bb5\uff1b\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u5927\u6c23\u74b0\u6d41\u4e5f\u5fc5\u9808\u51fa\u73fe\u8207\u8056\u5b30\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4fe1\u98a8\u6e1b\u5f31\u3001\u5370\u5c3c\u964d\u96e8\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5c0d\u6d41\u589e\u5f37\u3002\u8207\u4e4b\u76f8\u5c0d\u7684\u51b7\u537b\u968e\u6bb5\u5247\u7a31\u70ba\u300c<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">\u53cd\u8056\u5b30<\/mark>\u300d\uff08La Ni\u00f1a\uff09\uff1b\u4ecb\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u3001\u6d77\u6eab\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u7a31\u70ba\u300cENSO\u4e2d\u6027\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u6703\u540c\u6642\u76e3\u6e2c\u5927\u6c23\u7aef\u7684\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/zh-tw\/%E6%B2%83%E5%85%8B%E7%92%B0%E6%B5%81\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">\u6c83\u514b\u74b0\u6d41\uff08Walker Circulation\uff09<\/mark><\/a>\u300d\u2014\u2014\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u689d\u7531\u6eab\u5ea6\u8207\u6c23\u58d3\u5dee\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u6771\u897f\u5411\u5927\u578b\u6c23\u6d41\u3002\u7576\u6c83\u514b\u74b0\u6d41\u6e1b\u5f31\u3001\u6696\u6c34\u6771\u79fb\uff0c\u8056\u5b30\u4fbf\u6b63\u5f0f\u6210\u5f62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<p><a data-flickr-embed=\"true\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/gp\/jeffplay\/84E09Wi9kF\" title=\"Sea horizon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/live.staticflickr.com\/65535\/55507948232_a13405ce25_c.jpg\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" alt=\"Sea horizon\"\/><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2026\u5e74\u73fe\u6cc1\uff1a\u4e00\u5834\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u300c\u6975\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\u300d\u6b63\u5728\u6210\u5f62\u6210<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5f9e\u53cd\u8056\u5b30\u5230\u8056\u5b30\u7684\u6025\u901f\u7ffb\u8f49<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u6642\u9593\u62c9\u56de2025\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5176\u5be6\u9084\u8655\u65bcENSO\u4e2d\u6027\u504f\u51b7\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u7814\u7a76\u6a5f\u69cbIRI\u7576\u6642\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c2025\u5e74\u79cb\u51ac\u670956%\u6a5f\u7387\u8f49\u70ba\uff08\u5f31\uff09\u53cd\u8056\u5b30\uff0c\u4e14\u9019\u500b\u53cd\u8056\u5b30\u72c0\u614b\u539f\u672c\u88ab\u9810\u671f\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u52302026\u5e74\u521d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u662f\u9032\u51652026\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u60c5\u52e2\u51fa\u73fe\u53cd\u8f49\u3002NOAA\u57282026\u5e746\u6708\u5ba3\u5e03\u8056\u5b30\u5df2\u7d93\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u4e26\u767c\u5e03\u8056\u5b30\u8b66\u6212\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u9810\u4f30\u9019\u6ce2\u8056\u5b30\u670963%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6703\u5728\u79cb\u5b63\u589e\u5f37\u70ba\u4e2d\u7b49\u81f3\u5f37\u7b49\u7d1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8\u6708\u6700\u65b0\u76e3\u6e2c\uff1a\u6d77\u6eab\u3001\u6b21\u8868\u5c64\u90fd\u4eae\u8d77\u5f37\u70c8\u8a0a\u865f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6839\u64daCPC\u65bc2026\u5e748\u670813\u65e5\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u8a3a\u65b7\u5831\u544a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<p><a data-flickr-embed=\"true\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/gp\/jeffplay\/z86740sk5Z\" title=\"Silver fish in blue depth. Underwater motion.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/live.staticflickr.com\/65535\/55508953611_aa1219d6b4_c.jpg\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" alt=\"Silver fish in blue depth. Underwater motion.\"\/><\/a><script async src=\"\/\/embedr.flickr.com\/assets\/client-code.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2026\u5e747\u6708\uff0cNi\u00f1o-3.4\u5340\u6d77\u6eab\u8ddd\u5e73\u5df2\u9054 <strong>+1.4\u00b0C<\/strong>\uff0cNi\u00f1o-3\u5340\u70ba <strong>+1.7\u00b0C<\/strong>\uff0c\u6700\u6771\u5074\u7684Ni\u00f1o-1+2\u5340\u66f4\u9ad8\u9054 <strong>+2.9\u00b0C<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u8d64\u9053\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u6eab\u7570\u5e38\u5df2\u8d85\u904e<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">+2.0\u00b0C<\/mark>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6b21\u8868\u5c64\uff08180\u00b0W\u81f3100\u00b0W\u4e4b\u9593\u30010\u2013300\u516c\u5c3a\u6df1\uff09\u7684\u6696\u6c34\u8a0a\u865f\u540c\u6b65\u589e\u5f37\uff0c\u6eab\u8e8d\u5c64\u660e\u986f\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\"><strong>\u90e8\u5206\u6df1\u5c64\u6d77\u6eab\u7570\u5e38\u4e00\u5ea6\u9054\u5230\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684 +10.0\u00b0C<\/strong><\/mark>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5927\u6c23\u7aef\u4e5f\u540c\u6b65\u97ff\u61c9\uff1a\u4f4e\u5c64\u897f\u98a8\u7570\u5e38\u8207\u9ad8\u5c64\u6771\u98a8\u7570\u5e38\u5f9e\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u4e2d\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u3001\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5c0d\u6d41\u8207\u964d\u96e8\u589e\u5f37\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u4e00\u5e36\u964d\u96e8\u5247\u53d7\u5230\u58d3\u5236\uff0c\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u5178\u578b\u8056\u5b30\u7684\u300c\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u5f0f\u300d\u5927\u6c23\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u50b3\u7d71\u8207\u8d64\u9053\u5357\u65b9\u9707\u76ea\u6307\u6578\uff08SOI\uff09\u96d9\u96d9\u51fa\u73fe\u986f\u8457\u8ca0\u503c\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u8ca02\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6d77\u6d0b\u8207\u5927\u6c23\u7cfb\u7d71\u6b63\u5354\u540c\u8d70\u5411\u4e00\u6b21\u5f37\u70c8\u7684\u8056\u5b30\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u672a\u4f86\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6240\u6709\u5148\u524d\u7d00\u9304<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPC\u6574\u5408\u5317\u7f8e\u8207\u570b\u969b\u591a\u5957\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f8c\u8a55\u4f30\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">\u8056\u5b30\u9810\u671f\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u5f37\u81f3\u5e74\u5e95<\/mark>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2026\u5e74\u5317\u534a\u7403\u79cb\u51ac\u5b63\uff08fall\u2013winter 2026-27\uff09\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u300c<strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">\u6975\u5f37\u8056\u5b30<\/mark><\/strong>\u300d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u8d85\u904e<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-accent-color\">90%<\/mark>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CPC\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c2026\u5e7410\u81f312\u6708\u670969%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u6b77\u53f2\u7d1a\u300d\u8056\u5b30\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f3\u500b\u6708RONI\u9054\u5230+2.5\u00b0C\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f37\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6240\u6709\u5148\u524d\u7d00\u9304\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPC\u4e5f\u7279\u5225\u63d0\u9192\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u9019\u7a2e\u7b49\u7d1a\u7684\u8d85\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\uff0c\u5176\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u5929\u6c23\u885d\u64ca\u300c\u6a5f\u7387\u6703\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u975e\u4fdd\u8b49\u767c\u751f\u300d\u2014\u2014\u6c23\u5019\u7cfb\u7d71\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5831\u544a\u539f\u6587\u7279\u5225\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8056\u5b30\u5982\u4f55\u727d\u52d5\u74b0\u5883\u8b8a\u9077\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8056\u5b30\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u7d44\u6d77\u6eab\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5b83\u6703\u900f\u904e\u5927\u6c23\u74b0\u6d41\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u5168\u7403\u7684\u96e8\u91cf\u8207\u71b1\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u964d\u96e8\u7248\u5716\u632a\u79fb<\/strong>\uff1a\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u6fb3\u6d32\u4e00\u5e36\u964d\u96e8\u6e1b\u5c11\u3001\u4e7e\u65f1\u98a8\u96aa\u5347\u9ad8\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3001\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u53ca\u5357\u7f8e\u897f\u5cb8\u964d\u96e8\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u6d2a\u60a3\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5317\u534a\u7403\u51ac\u5b63\u6a21\u5f0f\u6539\u8b8a<\/strong>\uff1a\u5178\u578b\u8056\u5b30\u51ac\u5b63\uff0c\u5317\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5674\u6d41\u8def\u5f91\u5357\u79fb\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u5357\u90e8\u504f\u6fd5\u3001\u5317\u90e8\u504f\u6696\u4e7e\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6b77\u53f2\u5408\u6210\u8cc7\u6599\u6b78\u7d0d\u51fa\u7684\u50be\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e74\u5e74\u91cd\u6f14\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u758a\u52a0\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u300c\u52a0\u4e58\u6548\u61c9\u300d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8056\u5b30\u6703\u66ab\u6642\u63d0\u9ad8\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c23\u6eab\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u70ba\u9020\u6210\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5247\u6301\u7e8c\u62ac\u9ad8\u6c23\u5019\u80cc\u666f\u503c\u3002\u7576\u5169\u8005\u758a\u52a0\u6642\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c23\u6eab\u51fa\u73fe\u7570\u5e38\u9ad8\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e5f\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u9019\u6b21\u300c\u6b77\u53f2\u7d1a\u300d\u8056\u5b30\u9810\u6e2c\u7279\u5225\u53d7\u6c23\u5019\u79d1\u5b78\u754c\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u614b\u58d3\u529b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6771\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u51b7\u6c34\u6e67\u5347\u88ab\u58d3\u5236\uff0c\u6703\u524a\u5f31\u8a72\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u71df\u990a\u9e7d\u4f9b\u61c9\uff0c\u885d\u64ca\u6f01\u696d\u8cc7\u6e90\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u6d77\u6eab\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u63d0\u9ad8\u73ca\u745a\u767d\u5316\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7814\u7a76\u9650\u5236\u8207\u5f85\u89c0\u5bdf\u4e4b\u8655<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u76ee\u524d\uff082026\u5e748\u6708\uff09\u7684\u6578\u64da\u662f\u300c\u5f37\u70c8\u589e\u5f37\u4e2d\u300d\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u6700\u7d42\u5b9a\u8ad6\uff1bCPC\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8a3a\u65b7\u5831\u544a\u6392\u5b9a\u65bc2026\u5e749\u670810\u65e5\u767c\u5e03\uff0c\u6578\u5b57\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300c\u6a5f\u7387\u300d\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u4fdd\u8b49\u300d\uff1a\u7121\u8ad6\u662f90%\u7684\u6975\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u9084\u662f69%\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u7d1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u90fd\u4ee3\u8868\u6a5f\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u8d70\u52e2\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u843d\u5728\u8f03\u4f4e\u5340\u9593\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5340\u57df\u885d\u64ca\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u53f0\u7063\u672c\u5730\u964d\u96e8\u3001\u98b1\u98a8\u5b63\uff09\u9700\u8981\u53e6\u5916\u53c3\u8003\u4e2d\u592e\u6c23\u8c61\u7f72\u7b49\u5340\u57df\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u5b63\u7bc0\u9810\u5831\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684ENSO\u5831\u544a\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u55ae\u4e00\u5730\u5340\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/gp\/jeffplay\/Qx32oi748s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/live.staticflickr.com\/65535\/55507948107_9cbc22706b_c.jpg\" alt=\"hurricane-seen-from-space-above-earth-2026-03-19-23-56-52-utc\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.5009380863039399;width:800px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Q\uff1a2026\u5e74\u662f\u8056\u5b30\u5e74\u9084\u662f\u53cd\u8056\u5b30\u5e74\uff1f<\/strong> <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A\uff1a2026\u5e74\u7684ENSO\u72c0\u614b\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u986f\u8f49\u6298\uff1a\u5e74\u521d\u4ecd\u53d7\u5230\u53cd\u8056\u5b30\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u8f49\u70ba\u4e2d\u6027\uff0c\u5230\u4e866\u6708NOAA\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u5e03\u8056\u5b30\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u622a\u81f38\u6708\uff0c\u8056\u5b30\u4ecd\u6301\u7e8c\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Q\uff1a\u9019\u6b21\u8056\u5b30\u6709\u591a\u5f37\uff1f<\/strong> <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A\uff1a\u622a\u81f32026\u5e747\u6708\uff0cNi\u00f1o-3.4\u5340\u6d77\u6eab\u8ddd\u5e73\u70ba+1.4\u00b0C\uff1bCPC\u8a55\u4f30\u5317\u534a\u7403\u79cb\u51ac\u5b63\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u6975\u5f37\u8056\u5b30\u300d\u6a5f\u7387\u8d85\u904e90%\uff0c\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u66f4\u670969%\u6a5f\u7387\u6210\u70ba\u8d85\u8d8a1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6240\u6709\u5148\u524d\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u300c\u6b77\u53f2\u7d1a\u300d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Q\uff1a\u8056\u5b30\u73fe\u8c61\u548c\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u55ce\uff1f<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> A\uff1a\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u8056\u5b30\u662f\u6578\u5e74\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6d77\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5247\u662f\u4eba\u70ba\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u6392\u653e\u9020\u6210\u7684\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u5169\u8005\u758a\u52a0\u6642\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u8b93\u7576\u5e74\u6c23\u6eab\u7279\u5225\u5bb9\u6613\u7834\u7d00\u9304\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA\/CPC \u2014 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion\uff082026\/8\/13\uff09<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA \u2014 El Ni\u00f1o forms, expected to strengthen\uff082026\/6\/11\uff09<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/iri.columbia.edu\/our-expertise\/climate\/forecasts\/enso\/2025-september-quick-look\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IRI Columbia \u2014 September 2025 Quick Look<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/twc\/enso\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA\/NWS \u2014 El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a Information<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\u8207\u8ffd\u8e64<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p 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